This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind around 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Thursday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Point Forecast: 12 Miles NE Gerlach NV 40.77°N 119.2°W (Elev. 3972 ft)
I was up there the evening and night of 2/23 and the playa is mostly dry! I went across the playa from Mormon Dan to Double Hot with no trouble, a few puddles especially in the "ruts" but no real issues. Then drove back to 12 mile on the playa--again, no real problems except water in the tracks so don't drive in the tracks. Try to stay on the right side of those so you don't have to cross them but I did that several times also, just build up some speed and cross at an angle, sort of muddy and a big splash but I didn't get stuck in a 4WD truck in 2WD. Neither did a BMW or the other vehicles in our group. There were about 6 people camped at Black Rock Hot. The roads thru the dunes to both Black Rock and Double Hot were in about normal condition.
I'm guessing that the "usual" spots on the playa are wet so caution is advised, take plenty of gear, warm clothes, shovel etc etc. The temp at midnight was about 27. I'd try to stay out of the center, extreme edges, and known low spots on the playa but overall I was surprised at how passable it was! But I'd feel lots better if it was daytime and I could see better!
Black Rock Playa conditions: unknown
Early Jan: playa still covered in snow, valleys still encased in frozen fog
Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
FXUS65 KREV 011329 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
529 AM PST TUE JAN 1 2013
SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH A
FEW FLURRIES. TO THE NORTH, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT MAY BE
HEAVIER SNOW NEAR DOYLE AND HONEY LAKE. WHILE THOSE SHOWERS ARE
STILL RATHER LIGHT, SOME MEASUREABLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THAT
BAND. ALREADY UPDATED EARLIER FOR THE FOG AND WILL UPDATE TO ADD
THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE AND SOME
LIMITED SNOW MELT IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON, FREEZING
FOG IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WALLMANN
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PST TUE JAN 1 2013/
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
INFLUENCING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THIS RIDGING, CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY WAVES OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION
LEAVING THE REGION DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AT LEAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE, THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACTS FROM FREEZING FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH LEVELS OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST DUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
REGION. THIS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
PERSISTENT COLD AIR LOCKED IN BENEATH SURFACE INVERSIONS, WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG FORMATION.
USING MONDAY`S TEMPERATURES AS A CUE, HAVE LOWERED OVERALL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWED WARMING TREND. COLD
AIR HAS BECOME LOCKED IN FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE SNOW COVER
REMAINS. WITH SURFACE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING, IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO PROCEED WITH COOLER-THAN-GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST UNTIL
WE SEE A SHIFT IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS OR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
OCCURS. ALSO, SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZY FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND SIERRA VALLEYS. AIR QUALITY MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RENO METRO AREA SINCE SIGNIFICANT MIXING
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOYD
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STILL EXPECT THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD NEAR THE WEST COAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO NEXT WEEKEND.
GFS CONTINUES TO CUT A LOW OFF THE MEAN FLOW WELL OFF THE COAST
WITH RIDGING HOLDING. THE EC IS DIFFERENT WITH A MUCH WEAKER CUT-
OFF LOW AND THE MAIN TROUGH PASSING BY MORE TO THE NORTH WITH AT
BEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
THE MAIN ISSUE THEN WILL BE HOW LONG THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL LAST. FOR THE GFS, THEY WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE MOUNTAINS. EC
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL INVERSION BREAKUP ON SUNDAY WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND MODERATE WINDS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION
AND THE VARIABILITY OF THE EC RECENTLY WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
HAVE COOLED VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET AND WARMED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ON
AVERAGE 3-5 DEGREES FRI-MON. IF THE INVERSION HOLDS, IT IS A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME SMALL VARIATION IN TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT. AIR QUALITY
WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WHILE FREEZING FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SNOW COVER. WALLMANN
VFR CONDS EXCEPT NEAR KTRK WITH FZFG THRU 18Z. FZFG AGAIN FOR KTRK
AFT 06Z TONIGHT, AND ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WRN NV INCLUDING KRNO WITH
CHANCES 20-30 PCT. WALLMANN