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Current Conditions, Weather Forecast, and Imageryfriends
sunrise: 7:06 , sunset: 17:18 Area Forecast Discussion (glossary) FXUS65 KREV 042149 AFDREV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 149 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012 .SHORT TERM... RIDGE OVERHEAD TO REMAIN NOW INTO MONDAY BEFORE A SPLITTING SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSISTENT EC SINCE IT HAS THE SUPPORT NOW OF THE GFS AND GEFS. THIS SOLUTION IS MAINLY DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH MORE ON THAT BELOW. AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE RIDGE, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK. STILL EXPECT ONY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANY WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST OVERNIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH. THEREFORE A MILDER NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. THEN EC AND GFS KEEP THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLIT OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. THE EC IS COMPLETELY DRY EVEN FOR THE SIERRA. THE GFS HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000 FEET. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH A 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ALONE EXCEPT TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER NO MATTER THE SOLUTION AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... COOLED DOWN HIGHS NEXT SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES, OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE TO DISCUSS WILL BE THE POSSIBLE APPROACH OF A ELONGATING/SPLITTING DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND BRITISH COLUMBIA NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM WITH GETTING ANYTHING INTO OUR REGION WILL BE THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST, WHICH WILL TEND TO TEAR APART AND WEAKEN ANY ENERGY TRYING TO MAKE IT INLAND. THE ECMWF DOES NOT EVEN LET ANY ENERGY GET TO US WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT GOING SOUTH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, I DO NOT BUY THE GFS AS IT TENDS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EARLY SPLIT OFF THE COAST SIMILAR TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. HOWEVER, EVEN THE ECMWF COOLS TEMPS ALOFT AND BRINGS IN INCREASING HIGH MOISTURE/CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE, I COOLED DOWN HIGH TEMPS (ESPECIALLY RIDGES) ON SATURDAY AND ALLOWED DRY RIDGE HUMIDITIES FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK TO RISE WITH THE COOLING ALOFT. SNYDER .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCE OF FOG AT TRUCKEE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IT COULD JUST BE PATCHY NEAR THE TERMINAL SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST (ALTHOUGH I MAY GO WITH A BCFG TO COVER PATCHY FOG). SNYDER .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. 2012 0204 0002 0007 0012 0017 0022 0027 0032 0037 0042 0047 0052 0057 0102 0107 0112 0117 0122 0127 0132 0137 0142 0147 0152 0157 0202 0207 0212 0217 0222 0227 0232 0237 0242 0247 0252 0257 0302 0307 0312 0317 0322 0327 0332 0337 0342 0347 0352 0357 0402 0407 0412 0417 0422 0427 0432 0437 0442 0447 0457 0502 0507 0512 0517 0522 0527 0532 0537 0542 0547 0552 0557 0602 0607 0612 0617 0622 0627 0632 0637 0642 0647 0652 0657 0702 0707 0712 0717 0722 0727 0732 0737 0742 0747 0752 0757 0802 0807 0812 0817 0822 0827 0832 0837 0842 0847 0852 0857 0902 0907 0912 0917 0922 0927 0932 0937 0942 0947 0952 0957 1002 1007 1012 1017 1022 1027 1032 1037 1042 1047 1052 1057 1102 1107 1112 1117 1122 1127 1132 1137 1142 1147 1152 1157 1202 1207 1212 1217 1222 1227 1232 1237 1242 1247 1252 1257 1302 1307 1312 1317 1322 1327 1332 1337 1342 1347 1352 1357 1402 1407 1412 1417 1422 1427 1432 1437 1442 1447 1452 1457 1502 1507 1512 1517 1522 1527 1532 1537 1542 1547 1552 1557 1602 1607 1612 1617 1622 1627 1632 1637 1642 1647 1652 1657 1702 1707 1712 1717 1722 1727 1732 1737 1742 1747 1752 1757 1802 1807 1812 1817 1822 1827 1832 1837 1842 1847 1852 1857 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2102 2107 2112 2117 2122 2127 2012 0204 1202040800 1202040811 1202040815 1202040830 1202040841 1202040845 1202040900 1202040930 1202040941 1202040945 1202041000 1202041011 1202041015 1202041030 1202041041 1202041045 1202041100 1202041111 1202041115 1202041130 1202041141 1202041145 1202041200 1202041230 1202041241 1202041245 1202041300 1202041311 1202041315 1202041330 1202041341 1202041345 1202041400 1202041411 1202041415 1202041430 1202041441 1202041445 1202041500 1202041530 1202041541 1202041545 1202041600 1202041611 1202041615 1202041630 1202041641 1202041645 1202041700 1202041711 1202041715 1202041730 1202041741 1202041745 1202041800 1202041830 1202041841 1202041845 1202041900 1202041911 1202041915 1202041930 1202041941 1202041945 1202042000 1202042011 1202042015 1202042030 1202042041 1202042045 1202042100 1202042145 1202042200 1202042211 1202042215 1202042230 1202042241 1202042245 1202042300 1202042311 1202042315 1202042330 1202042341 1202042345 1202050000 1202050030 1202050100 1202050111 1202050115 1202050130 1202050141 1202050145 1202050200 1202050211 1202050215 1202050230 1202050241 1202050245 1202050300 1202050330 1202050341 1202050345 1202050400 1202050411 1202050415 1202050430 1202050441 1202050445 1202050500 1202050511 |
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