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Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
FXUS65 KREV 212150
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2008
.SHORT TERM...
LOW OVER SRN BC WILL PULLING AWAY ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA. RIDGE IS GENERALLY FLAT AND E-W ORIENTED WITH AXIS TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING
PATTERN WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS.
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST ASIDE FROM ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE PINE NUTS AND MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES SAT.
MOISTURE THAT INVADED THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL NOT BE SCOURED TOO
MUCH...AND WITH LOW LEVEL WARMING INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE. BY SAT...MODELS ALL SHOW SOME COOLING ABOVE 500MB WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN IF NOT DIMINISH THE CAP ALTOGETHER SOUTH OF HWY 50.
WITH THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR KICKING IN DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...SOME FLAT TO MODERATE CU EVERYWHERE ELSE
AS THE CAP REMAINS.
SUNDAY...NEXT TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST. ALL THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DO IS BRING IN SOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHED EAST TOWARDS ERN NV DUE TO THE WARMING
ALOFT AND ONLY SOME FLAT-MODERATE CU WILL FORM. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE GFS
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH SWINGS MAIN TROF ACROSS
THE NWRN US-NRN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTH END BRUSHING ACROSS NERN
CA-NWRN NV ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON AFTN-EVE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES NORTHWEST FOR
TUES-WED AS RIDGE REBUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY DROP TEMPS FROM THEIR WEEKEND HIGHS BY 1-4
DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 4-8 DEGREES FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THIS MODEST COOLING
TREND...TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST WRN NV VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THEN INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
INTO THE SWRN US.
NO PRECIP OR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILDUPS IN THE MINERAL AND MONO ZONES FROM TUES-THURS...BUT SPARSE
MOISTURE AND POOR INSTBY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT TSTM
FORMATION. MJD
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT THRU 04Z TODAY WITH SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AND DURATION OF ZEPHYR ON FRIDAY. MJD
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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